You may have already heard that Technomic has revised it's foodservice industry forecast for 2009 downward, but we thought we'd send a quick notice to update you on our thinking. We've also attached our latest wallchart for your review.
- For many operators, 2008 finished with decling sales, and as we look ahead to 2009, most economists don't project a rebound for quite some time. "Staying afloat" in this environment has become a challenge, and operators are trying every trick in their bag to increase traffic.
- While operators would love to increase topline, they've been increasingly focused on efficiencies and ensuring that they support their bottom line as much as possible in this difficult environment.
As a result, as we look at the industry on a segment by segment basis, we don't see too many segments that will have positive real sales, and for many segments their dollar growth will decline as well. Our overall foodservice forecast calls for a sales decline of -2.2%, and a real decline of -4.6%.
- Overall restaurant sales are expected to decline -2.6%.
- Overall beyond restaurant sales are expected to decline -1.5%
Finally, forecasting in this environment is extremely difficult, and with the discussion on the stimulus package, we can see a "best case" scenario where there is some immediate impact and unemployment stabilizes. However, even in this best case scenario we still see real declines in 2009 of -1% to -2%. In a worst case scenario there is the potential that the industry could decline as much as -7% to -8% in real terms.
Not great news for the industry, but It keeps everyone up to date on Technomic's analysis.
